Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-11-17?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$177.74

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 36.5¢

-16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$773.47

Total Shares2,176

Combined PnL-$174.77

Yes4 traders

Total Value$348.91

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$2.97

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 43.9¢	$844.48	$682.13	-$162.35	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 63¢	$378	$285.75	-$3.75	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$39.18	$39.73	+$0.54	56% 888-693 (1581)
NM NM-P<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$30.96	$31.2	+$0.25	59% 3973-2751 (6724)
GC GC-P<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$30.43	$30.67	+$0.24	43% 578-773 (1351)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 43.9¢	$34.22	$27.67	-$6.55	48% 2658-2887 (5545)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$27.66	$21.82	-$5.84	41% 1224-1758 (2982)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.7	$2.13	-$0.57	50% 204-200 (404)
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$1	$1.29	+$0.29	53% 28-25 (53)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$844.48

Value

$682.13

PnL

-$162.35

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$378

Value

$285.75

PnL

-$3.75

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$39.18

Value

$39.73

PnL

+$0.54

Record

56%

888-693 (1581)

NM-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.96

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

3973-2751 (6724)

GC-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.43

Value

$30.67

PnL

+$0.24

Record

43%

578-773 (1351)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$34.22

Value

$27.67

PnL

-$6.55

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$27.66

Value

$21.82

PnL

-$5.84

Record

41%

1224-1758 (2982)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.57

Record

50%

204-200 (404)

BlackMamba08<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

28-25 (53)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.