Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Australia — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Australia
Spread: Australia (-2.5)
Resolved Australia. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Australia. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Australia 67%
1 arb excluded
$352.61
$26.28
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Australiaavg 84¢ | $198.14 | $235.88 | +$37.74 | 56% 4863-3816 (8679) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Qataravg 26.3¢ | $288.94 | $56.73 | -$232.21 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
| └ Qatar leg | Qataravg 26.3¢ | $241.53 | — | -$241.53 | |
| └ Australia leg | Australiaavg 83.6¢ | $47.41 | $56.73 | +$9.32 | |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Australiaavg 82¢ | $53.2 | $40 | -$13.2 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Australiaavg 11¢ | $1.1 | $10 | +$8.9 | 36% 763-1361 (2124) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Australiaavg 87¢ | $8.7 | $10 | +$1.3 | 78% 748-213 (961) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Qataravg 18¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 35% 736-1380 (2116) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Qataravg 79¢ | $12.15 | — | -$7.15 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
RN1Invested
$198.14
Value
$235.88
PnL
+$37.74
Record
56%
4863-3816 (8679)
Invested
$288.94
Value
$56.73
PnL
-$232.21
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.2
Value
$40
PnL
-$13.2
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$8.9
Record
36%
763-1361 (2124)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.3
Record
78%
748-213 (961)
Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
35%
736-1380 (2116)
Invested
$12.15
Value
—
PnL
-$7.15
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)