New Zealand vs. India: O/U 2.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$387.13

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 100¢

+51% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,279

Combined PnL+$90.81

Under7 traders

Total Value$32.72

Total Shares1,510

Combined PnL-$477.94

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-78 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 65.4¢	$923.56	$1.0K	+$99.61	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 97¢	$38.8	$30	-$8.8	82% 262-57 (319)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$13.79	$16.41	+$2.63	47% 1103-1245 (2348)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$12.81	$10.81	-$2	36% 596-1072 (1668)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 29.9¢	$3.83	$3.46	-$0.38	56% 621-486 (1107)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.35	-$0.25	41% 1132-1606 (2738)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 35¢	$274.76	$0.39	-$274.37	38% 1229-2023 (3252)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 34¢	$139.44	$0.2	-$139.24	38% 1242-1999 (3241)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 33.7¢	$64.43	$0.1	-$64.33	38% 1233-2055 (3288)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$923.56

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$99.61

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$38.8

Value

$30

PnL

-$8.8

Record

82%

262-57 (319)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.79

Value

$16.41

PnL

+$2.63

Record

47%

1103-1245 (2348)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.81

Value

$10.81

PnL

-$2

Record

36%

596-1072 (1668)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.83

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$0.38

Record

56%

621-486 (1107)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.25

Record

41%

1132-1606 (2738)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$274.76

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$274.37

Record

38%

1229-2023 (3252)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$139.44

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$139.24

Record

38%

1242-1999 (3241)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64.43

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$64.33

Record

38%

1233-2055 (3288)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-78 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.