Spread: New Zealand (-2.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand (50%) · New Zealand at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

New Zealand93¢India7¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Zealand

Consensus Traders

New Zealand 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$7.96

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 92.5¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

New Zealand93%

India8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Zealand5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,341

Combined PnL-$79.12

India5 traders

Total Value$400.22

Total Shares1,222

Combined PnL+$71.15

New Zealand — 50%India — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	New Zealandavg 79.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$90.91	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR	Indiaavg 13.1¢	$100.2	$198.6	+$98.4	28% 88-224 (312)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Indiaavg 50.6¢	$79.39	$69.08	-$10.31	56% 621-486 (1107)
SN SnakeBall<$100	New Zealandavg 45¢	$47.45	$59.05	+$11.6	47% 1103-1245 (2348)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Indiaavg 56¢	$70.71	$55.56	-$15.15	38% 134-216 (350)
FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100	Indiaavg 48¢	$53.41	$49	-$4.41	51% 26-25 (51)
SU suntori<$100	New Zealandavg 52¢	$36.18	$38.38	+$2.2	46% 3003-3542 (6545)
VeryLucky888CTR	Indiaavg 46.5¢	$162.15	$27.97	+$2.63	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
FE ferdinand2<$100	New Zealandavg 94¢	$7.1	$5	-$2.1	48% 2369-2583 (4952)
SE sentrio<$100	New Zealandavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.7	+$0.1	41% 1132-1606 (2738)

Flaznorp

New Zealand

Invested

$1,225.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$90.91

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR

India

Invested

$100.2

Value

$198.6

PnL

+$98.4

Record

28%

88-224 (312)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

India

Invested

$79.39

Value

$69.08

PnL

-$10.31

Record

56%

621-486 (1107)

SnakeBall<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$47.45

Value

$59.05

PnL

+$11.6

Record

47%

1103-1245 (2348)

biying99999CTR<$100

India

Invested

$70.71

Value

$55.56

PnL

-$15.15

Record

38%

134-216 (350)

FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100

India

Invested

$53.41

Value

$49

PnL

-$4.41

Record

51%

26-25 (51)

suntori<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$36.18

Value

$38.38

PnL

+$2.2

Record

46%

3003-3542 (6545)

VeryLucky888CTR

India

Invested

$162.15

Value

$27.97

PnL

+$2.63

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

ferdinand2<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$7.1

Value

PnL

-$2.1

Record

48%

2369-2583 (4952)

sentrio<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

41%

1132-1606 (2738)

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Zealand wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.