Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand (30%) · New Zealand at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

New Zealand75¢India25¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Zealand

Consensus Traders

New Zealand 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$105.04

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 74.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

New Zealand75%

India26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Zealand3 traders

Total Value$615.51

Total Shares846

Combined PnL-$8.58

India7 traders

Total Value$579.52

Total Shares2,038

Combined PnL-$96.45

New Zealand — 30%India — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	New Zealandavg 73.3¢	$295.23	$295.97	+$0.74	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
IC ic4cream	New Zealandavg 76.9¢	$263.86	$255.54	-$8.33	8% 41-464 (505)
SharkbettingComCTR	Indiaavg 44¢	$292.89	$232.98	-$59.91	0% 0-68 (68)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Indiaavg 50¢	$437	$198	-$2	65% 140-74 (214)
└ New Zealand leg	New Zealandavg 50¢	$100	$128	+$28
└ India leg	Indiaavg 50¢	$100	$70	-$30
FL FlaznorpCTR	Indiaavg 28¢	$205.53	$183.75	-$21.78	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Indiaavg 26¢	$97.89	$96.01	-$1.88	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
leflaive<$100	New Zealandavg 65¢	$65	$64	-$1	47% 21-24 (45)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Indiaavg 29¢	$50.75	$43.75	-$7	56% 598-472 (1070)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Indiaavg 35.1¢	$15.04	$12.21	-$2.83	41% 1108-1568 (2676)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Indiaavg 32.8¢	$12.58	$9.58	-$3	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Indiaavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.25	-$0.05	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

suntori

New Zealand

Invested

$295.23

Value

$295.97

PnL

+$0.74

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

ic4cream

New Zealand

Invested

$263.86

Value

$255.54

PnL

-$8.33

Record

41-464 (505)

SharkbettingComCTR

India

Invested

$292.89

Value

$232.98

PnL

-$59.91

Record

0-68 (68)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

India

Invested

$437

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

65%

140-74 (214)

Both legs:

New Zealand$10050¢+$28

India$10050¢-$30

FlaznorpCTR

India

Invested

$205.53

Value

$183.75

PnL

-$21.78

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

India

Invested

$97.89

Value

$96.01

PnL

-$1.88

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

leflaive<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$65

Value

$64

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

21-24 (45)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

India

Invested

$50.75

Value

$43.75

PnL

-$7

Record

56%

598-472 (1070)

sentrioCTR<$100

India

Invested

$15.04

Value

$12.21

PnL

-$2.83

Record

41%

1108-1568 (2676)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

India

Invested

$12.58

Value

$9.58

PnL

-$3

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

India

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Zealand wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.