Will New Zealand win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 84¢ · $258 held · ends Nov 15

Yes84¢No16¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$258.45

Combined PnL

-$2.53

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 83.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$193.6

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$1.91

No6 traders

Total Value$64.85

Total Shares388

Combined PnL-$0.62

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
leflaive	Yesavg 79¢	$158	$158	-$0	49% 17-18 (35)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$24.22	$23.34	-$0.88	56% 460-366 (826)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 17.4¢	$23.32	$22.16	-$1.16	37% 956-1658 (2614)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$13.46	$12.27	-$1.19	37% 965-1630 (2595)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 85.7¢	$13.29	$12.25	-$1.04	62% 204-124 (328)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$8.28	$11.04	+$2.76	22% 179-617 (796)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 18.5¢	$12	$10.73	-$1.28	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$7.41	$7.66	+$0.25	35% 437-797 (1234)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1	$1	+$0	42% 989-1357 (2346)

leflaive

Yes

Invested

$158

Value

$158

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

17-18 (35)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.22

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$0.88

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$23.32

Value

$22.16

PnL

-$1.16

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$13.46

Value

$12.27

PnL

-$1.19

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.29

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$1.04

Record

62%

204-124 (328)

hi774cCTR<$100

Invested

$8.28

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$2.76

Record

22%

179-617 (796)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$1.28

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$0.25

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.