New Zealand vs. India: O/U 6.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 85¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 12

Over15¢Under85¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

-$507.51

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 84.9¢

-9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over15%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares10,359

Combined PnL-$734.58

Over3 traders

Total Value$587.36

Total Shares5,815

Combined PnL+$227.06

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 93.7¢	$8.0K	$7.3K	-$768.7	— 2-7 (9)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 91.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$32.71	55% 1628-1331 (2959)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 76.5¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$412.71	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
└ Under leg	Underavg 76.5¢	$843.76	$925.21	+$81.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 6.7¢	$234.31	$565.57	+$331.26
RN1CTR	Overavg 6.1¢	$307.46	$508.56	+$201.11	57% 4429-3409 (7838)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 6.9¢	$52.29	$76.83	+$24.54	37% 200-345 (545)
dips.<$100	Underavg 79.7¢	$26.79	$28.52	+$1.73	45% 506-615 (1121)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 86.2¢	$19.04	$18.72	-$0.32	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 2.8¢	$0.54	$1.96	+$1.42	41% 525-744 (1269)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$8,036.11

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$768.7

Record

—

2-7 (9)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,786.33

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$32.71

Record

55%

1628-1331 (2959)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,078.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$412.71

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

Both legs:

Under$843.7676.5¢+$81.45

Over$234.316.7¢+$331.26

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$307.46

Value

$508.56

PnL

+$201.11

Record

57%

4429-3409 (7838)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.29

Value

$76.83

PnL

+$24.54

Record

37%

200-345 (545)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$26.79

Value

$28.52

PnL

+$1.73

Record

45%

506-615 (1121)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$19.04

Value

$18.72

PnL

-$0.32

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.54

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$1.42

Record

41%

525-744 (1269)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.5%

84.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.