New Zealand vs. India: O/U 5.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 80¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 12

Over20¢Under80¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$841.4

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 80¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares9,763

Combined PnL-$870.02

Over6 traders

Total Value$819.67

Total Shares7,152

Combined PnL+$28.62

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 88.9¢	$8.7K	$7.8K	-$870	— 2-7 (9)
RN1CTR	Overavg 11¢	$494.34	$516.81	+$22.47	57% 4319-3324 (7643)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 11.6¢	$386.06	$332.62	-$53.43	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
└ Over leg	Overavg 11.6¢	$291.43	$238.38	-$53.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 90.9¢	$94.63	$94.25	-$0.38
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 11.5¢	$172.22	$172.17	-$0.04	37% 193-335 (528)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 10¢	$110.31	$115.35	+$5.04	55% 1627-1324 (2951)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 90¢	$14	$14	+$0	41% 490-712 (1202)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 10.2¢	$9.2	$10.35	+$1.15	54% 386-329 (715)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$2.79	$2.79	+$0	14% 26-163 (189)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$2.2	$2.2	+$0	42% 130-180 (310)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 91.5¢	$1.68	$1.66	-$0.03	50% 1105-1107 (2212)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$8,666.95

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$870

Record

—

2-7 (9)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$494.34

Value

$516.81

PnL

+$22.47

Record

57%

4319-3324 (7643)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$386.06

Value

$332.62

PnL

-$53.43

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

Both legs:

Over$291.4311.6¢-$53.05

Under$94.6390.9¢-$0.38

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$172.22

Value

$172.17

PnL

-$0.04

Record

37%

193-335 (528)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$110.31

Value

$115.35

PnL

+$5.04

Record

55%

1627-1324 (2951)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$14

Value

$14

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10.35

PnL

+$1.15

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

26-163 (189)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

130-180 (310)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

1105-1107 (2212)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.