New Zealand vs. India: O/U 4.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 80¢ · $455 held · ends Nov 12

Over21¢Under79¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$454.99

Combined PnL

$3.24

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 79.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$387.03

Total Shares480

Combined PnL+$3.55

Over3 traders

Total Value$15.37

Total Shares78

Combined PnL-$0.31

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 79.1¢	$282.23	$236.83	+$1.6	52% 597-541 (1138)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 79¢	$135.24	$136.95	+$1.71	55% 1616-1311 (2927)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 80.2¢	$52.65	$52.59	-$0.06	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 80.2¢	$31.54	$32.04	+$0.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 19¢	$21.11	$20.56	-$0.56
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 80¢	$13.01	$13.25	+$0.24	40% 438-657 (1095)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$9.52	$9.76	+$0.24	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$3.27	$3.18	-$0.09	31% 441-967 (1408)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$2.89	$2.43	-$0.46	32% 444-952 (1396)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$282.23

Value

$236.83

PnL

+$1.6

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$135.24

Value

$136.95

PnL

+$1.71

Record

55%

1616-1311 (2927)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$52.65

Value

$52.59

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Under$31.5480.2¢+$0.5

Over$21.1119¢-$0.56

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$13.01

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$0.24

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.76

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$0.09

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.46

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.