Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
New Zealand vs. India: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 32¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$40.97
52.1¢ → 31.5¢
-40% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 50.2¢ | $940.78 | $919.7 | -$21.08 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.2¢ | $474.37 | $646.91 | +$172.54 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.9¢ | $466.41 | $272.79 | -$193.62 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 48.6¢ | $410.15 | $449.54 | +$39.39 | 55% 1627-1324 (2951) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 59.9¢ | $226.81 | $238.49 | +$11.68 | 52% 661-616 (1277) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $19.59 | $13.71 | -$5.88 | 33% 503-1013 (1516) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.4¢ | $12.1 | $7.88 | -$4.23 | 32% 496-1046 (1542) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $4.26 | $4.31 | +$0.05 | 37% 193-335 (528) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $3.15 | -$0.05 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $2.85 | $2.85 | +$0 | 47% 1401-1566 (2967) |
Invested
$940.78
Value
$919.7
PnL
-$21.08
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Both legs:
Invested
$410.15
Value
$449.54
PnL
+$39.39
Record
55%
1627-1324 (2951)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$226.81
Value
$238.49
PnL
+$11.68
Record
52%
661-616 (1277)
Invested
$19.59
Value
$13.71
PnL
-$5.88
Record
33%
503-1013 (1516)
Invested
$12.1
Value
$7.88
PnL
-$4.23
Record
32%
496-1046 (1542)
Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.31
PnL
+$0.05
Record
37%
193-335 (528)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$0.05
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1401-1566 (2967)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.