New Zealand vs. India: O/U 2.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 89¢ · $954 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$953.61
$53.17
61¢ → 89¢
+46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 67.9¢ | $536.77 | $519.19 | -$17.59 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 67.9¢ | $292.08 | $303.19 | +$11.11 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 33.4¢ | $244.69 | $215.99 | -$28.7 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 58¢ | $164.49 | $200.97 | +$36.48 | 55% 1627-1324 (2951) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 40.2¢ | $72.79 | $72.47 | -$0.32 | 52% 661-616 (1277) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $52.47 | $53.72 | +$1.25 | 57% 4319-3324 (7643) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 63.5¢ | $40.56 | $47.94 | +$9.66 | 47% 1401-1566 (2967) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $36 | $42 | +$6 | 78% 712-201 (913) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 60.1¢ | $10.02 | $10.23 | +$0.21 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $3.73 | $3.67 | -$0.06 | 33% 503-1013 (1516) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $3.48 | $3.42 | -$0.06 | 32% 496-1046 (1542) |
Invested
$536.77
Value
$519.19
PnL
-$17.59
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Both legs:
Invested
$164.49
Value
$200.97
PnL
+$36.48
Record
55%
1627-1324 (2951)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$72.79
Value
$72.47
PnL
-$0.32
Record
52%
661-616 (1277)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$52.47
Value
$53.72
PnL
+$1.25
Record
57%
4319-3324 (7643)
Invested
$40.56
Value
$47.94
PnL
+$9.66
Record
47%
1401-1566 (2967)
Invested
$36
Value
$42
PnL
+$6
Record
78%
712-201 (913)
Invested
$10.02
Value
$10.23
PnL
+$0.21
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$3.67
PnL
-$0.06
Record
33%
503-1013 (1516)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$3.42
PnL
-$0.06
Record
32%
496-1046 (1542)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.