Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
New Zealand vs. India: O/U 1.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $420 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$420.3
-$3.41
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 85.4¢ | $271.9 | $253.46 | -$18.44 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 85.4¢ | $137.79 | $150.08 | +$12.3 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 9.1¢ | $134.11 | $103.38 | -$30.73 | |
NE Next-Licensing<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $99 | $95.5 | -$3.5 | 98% 86-2 (88) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 16.1¢ | $22.05 | $23.98 | +$1.93 | 52% 661-616 (1277) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $19.28 | $17.76 | -$1.52 | 32% 496-1046 (1542) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 18.9¢ | $11.93 | $11.05 | -$0.89 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $7.2 | $7 | -$0.2 | 33% 503-1013 (1516) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $4.85 | +$0 | 64% 23-13 (36) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $4.17 | $4.76 | +$0.6 | 55% 1627-1324 (2951) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $1.76 | $1.92 | +$0.16 | 44% 159-200 (359) |
Invested
$271.9
Value
$253.46
PnL
-$18.44
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Both legs:
Invested
$99
Value
$95.5
PnL
-$3.5
Record
98%
86-2 (88)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$22.05
Value
$23.98
PnL
+$1.93
Record
52%
661-616 (1277)
Invested
$19.28
Value
$17.76
PnL
-$1.52
Record
32%
496-1046 (1542)
Invested
$11.93
Value
$11.05
PnL
-$0.89
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$7
PnL
-$0.2
Record
33%
503-1013 (1516)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
23-13 (36)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0.6
Record
55%
1627-1324 (2951)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$1.76
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.16
Record
44%
159-200 (359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.