New Zealand vs. India: O/U 0.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 97¢ · $825 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
$824.81
-$0.52
Research grade
NeutralOver at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 95.4¢ | $793.1 | $793.91 | +$0.81 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.3¢ | $15.23 | $15.69 | +$0.46 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.9¢ | $12.07 | $10.21 | -$1.86 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.3¢ | $3.95 | $4.07 | +$0.12 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.6¢ | $0.99 | $0.93 | -$0.05 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
Invested
$793.1
Value
$793.91
PnL
+$0.81
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$15.23
Value
$15.69
PnL
+$0.46
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$12.07
Value
$10.21
PnL
-$1.86
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4.07
PnL
+$0.12
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$0.93
PnL
-$0.05
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.