Spread: New Zealand (-3.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand (75%) · New Zealand at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
New Zealand
8
New Zealand 75%
$3.5K
-$161.41
80.4¢ → 95¢
+18% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNew Zealand at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+42 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on New Zealand. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | New Zealandavg 83.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$224.15 | 55% 1628-1331 (2959) |
FL Flaznorp | New Zealandavg 86.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$193.51 | 51% 2468-2344 (4812) |
 dips. | New Zealandavg 58.2¢ | $356.99 | $462.23 | +$190.31 | 45% 506-615 (1121) |
SL SlickRick123 | New Zealandavg 63¢ | $103.36 | $87.36 | +$51 | 26% 172-481 (653) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Indiaavg 9¢ | $15.22 | $15.22 | -$0 | 37% 200-345 (545) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | New Zealandavg 34.7¢ | $14.93 | $13.54 | +$9.61 | 50% 1181-1203 (2384) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | New Zealandavg 48.4¢ | $5.61 | $11 | +$5.39 | 33% 531-1071 (1602) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Indiaavg 84¢ | $5 | $4.95 | -$0.05 | 41% 525-744 (1269) |
Invested
$1,817.3
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$224.15
Record
55%
1628-1331 (2959)
Invested
$1,553.7
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$193.51
Record
51%
2468-2344 (4812)
dips.Invested
$356.99
Value
$462.23
PnL
+$190.31
Record
45%
506-615 (1121)
Invested
$103.36
Value
$87.36
PnL
+$51
Record
26%
172-481 (653)
Invested
$15.22
Value
$15.22
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
200-345 (545)
Invested
$14.93
Value
$13.54
PnL
+$9.61
Record
50%
1181-1203 (2384)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.39
Record
33%
531-1071 (1602)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
41%
525-744 (1269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.