Spread: New Zealand (-2.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand (56%) · New Zealand at 73¢ · $495 held · ended Nov 12

New Zealand73¢India27¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Zealand

Consensus Traders

New Zealand 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$494.82

Combined PnL

$88.8

Smart Money Entry

41.5¢ → 73¢

+76% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

New Zealand73%

India27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Zealand5 traders

Total Value$319.33

Total Shares509

Combined PnL+$88.39

India4 traders

Total Value$41.19

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$0.41

New Zealand — 56%India — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ARocky33	New Zealandavg 35¢	$90.6	$139.78	+$49.18	78% 712-201 (913)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	New Zealandavg 47.4¢	$127.39	$134.3	+$34.13	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
└ New Zealand leg	New Zealandavg 47.4¢	$65.64	$100.42	+$44.57
└ India leg	Indiaavg 36¢	$44.32	$33.87	-$10.44
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	New Zealandavg 60.6¢	$81.66	$99.77	+$18.11	55% 1627-1324 (2951)
LI Limousin<$100	New Zealandavg 33.1¢	$52.78	$72.73	+$19.95	32% 489-1029 (1518)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Indiaavg 45¢	$17.32	$17.7	+$0.38	32% 500-1044 (1544)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Indiaavg 46.5¢	$10.06	$10.28	+$0.22	32% 496-1046 (1542)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Indiaavg 66.5¢	$8.3	$8.1	-$0.2	41% 490-712 (1202)
FE ferdinand2<$100	New Zealandavg 43¢	$4.3	$5.35	+$1.05	50% 1105-1107 (2212)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Indiaavg 64¢	$5.1	$5.1	+$0	52% 661-616 (1277)
MA MadridTime<$100	New Zealandavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.7	+$0.1	33% 503-1013 (1516)

ARocky33

New Zealand

Invested

$90.6

Value

$139.78

PnL

+$49.18

Record

78%

712-201 (913)

FlaznorpARB<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$127.39

Value

$134.3

PnL

+$34.13

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

Both legs:

New Zealand$65.6447.4¢+$44.57

India$44.3236¢-$10.44

GoalLineGhost<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$81.66

Value

$99.77

PnL

+$18.11

Record

55%

1627-1324 (2951)

Limousin<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$52.78

Value

$72.73

PnL

+$19.95

Record

32%

489-1029 (1518)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

India

Invested

$17.32

Value

$17.7

PnL

+$0.38

Record

32%

500-1044 (1544)

VenusianCTR<$100

India

Invested

$10.06

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$0.22

Record

32%

496-1046 (1542)

sentrioCTR<$100

India

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

ferdinand2<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$4.3

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

1105-1107 (2212)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

India

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

661-616 (1277)

MadridTime<$100

New Zealand

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

33%

503-1013 (1516)

Research grade

NeutralNew Zealand at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

New Zealand

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Zealand wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.