Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold India (40%) · India at 51¢ · $387 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
India
5
India 40%
$387.32
$1.16
51.8¢ → 50.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralIndia at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE VenusianCTR | New Zealandavg 48¢ | $156.17 | $162.68 | +$6.51 | 30% 373-861 (1234) |
FL Flaznorp | Indiaavg 51.8¢ | $164.2 | $158.56 | -$5.64 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Indiaavg 52¢ | $33.13 | $31.86 | -$1.27 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | New Zealandavg 48¢ | $23.7 | $24.69 | +$0.99 | 31% 373-839 (1212) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | New Zealandavg 49¢ | $18.95 | $9.53 | +$0.58 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
Invested
$156.17
Value
$162.68
PnL
+$6.51
Record
30%
373-861 (1234)
Invested
$164.2
Value
$158.56
PnL
-$5.64
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Invested
$33.13
Value
$31.86
PnL
-$1.27
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
Invested
$23.7
Value
$24.69
PnL
+$0.99
Record
31%
373-839 (1212)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$18.95
Value
$9.53
PnL
+$0.58
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.