Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will New Zealand win on 2026-11-12?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 25¢ · $372 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$372
-$1.12
24.7¢ → 24.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 24.5¢ | $203.26 | $203.41 | +$0.15 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 26.4¢ | $216.15 | $138.24 | +$0.56 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 26.4¢ | $82.57 | $76.73 | -$5.83 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 71.7¢ | $58.43 | $61.5 | +$6.39 | |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.8¢ | $22.35 | $20.88 | -$1.47 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $10.73 | $6.61 | +$0.26 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $2.92 | $2.86 | -$0.06 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$203.26
Value
$203.41
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$216.15
Value
$138.24
PnL
+$0.56
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.35
Value
$20.88
PnL
-$1.47
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$10.73
Value
$6.61
PnL
+$0.26
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$2.92
Value
$2.86
PnL
-$0.06
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.