Will India win on 2026-11-12?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$5.08
91.8¢ → 91.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 92¢ | $747.19 | $743.13 | -$4.06 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 91.8¢ | $425.23 | $424.01 | -$1.21 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 91.4¢ | $151.92 | $152.09 | +$0.17 | 31% 385-869 (1254) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $138.15 | $136.24 | -$1.91 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $98.09 | $95.19 | -$2.9 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 89.3¢ | $40.06 | $41.05 | +$0.99 | |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $25.19 | $25.21 | +$0.03 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
Invested
$747.19
Value
$743.13
PnL
-$4.06
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
Invested
$425.23
Value
$424.01
PnL
-$1.21
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$151.92
Value
$152.09
PnL
+$0.17
Record
31%
385-869 (1254)
Invested
$138.15
Value
$136.24
PnL
-$1.91
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Both legs:
Invested
$25.19
Value
$25.21
PnL
+$0.03
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.