New Zealand leading at halftime?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 100¢ · $999 held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$998.98

Combined PnL

-$27.65

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 99.8¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$925.66

Total Shares939

Combined PnL+$122.29

No7 traders

Total Value$73.33

Total Shares979

Combined PnL-$149.95

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 93.8¢	$442.5	$451.05	+$8.56	55% 1627-1324 (2951)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 69.2¢	$295.08	$402.56	+$107.48	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 91.1¢	$65.79	$72.04	+$6.25	47% 1401-1566 (2967)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 38.1¢	$69.4	$68.27	-$1.13	37% 193-335 (528)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$2.25	$1.88	-$0.38	41% 490-712 (1202)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 6.5¢	$1.07	$1.07	-$0.01	47% 394-451 (845)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$33.25	$0.95	-$32.3	32% 489-1029 (1518)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$1.02	$0.6	-$0.43	50% 1105-1107 (2212)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$76.67	$0.37	-$76.3	32% 496-1046 (1542)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$39.61	$0.19	-$39.42	33% 503-1013 (1516)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$442.5

Value

$451.05

PnL

+$8.56

Record

55%

1627-1324 (2951)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$295.08

Value

$402.56

PnL

+$107.48

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.79

Value

$72.04

PnL

+$6.25

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$69.4

Value

$68.27

PnL

-$1.13

Record

37%

193-335 (528)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.38

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$1.07

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

394-451 (845)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$33.25

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$32.3

Record

32%

489-1029 (1518)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.43

Record

50%

1105-1107 (2212)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$76.67

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$76.3

Record

32%

496-1046 (1542)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$39.61

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$39.42

Record

33%

503-1013 (1516)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.