Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

New Zealand vs. India: 1st Half O/U 2.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $514 held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$513.99

Combined PnL

$50.04

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$423.52

Total Shares485

Combined PnL-$21.49

Over3 traders

Total Value$90.34

Total Shares97

Combined PnL+$71.52

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 63.6¢	$292.36	$326.23	+$33.87	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Underavg 73¢	$94.66	$97.25	+$2.59	44% 171-217 (388)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 13¢	$11.25	$79.35	+$68.1	37% 200-345 (545)
dips.<$100	Overavg 92¢	$5.52	$6	+$0.48	45% 506-615 (1121)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2.05	$5	+$2.95	32% 510-1077 (1587)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 75¢	$41.25	$0.03	-$41.22	32% 276-598 (874)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Underavg 61.8¢	$13.29	$0.01	-$13.28	57% 83-62 (145)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 69¢	$3.45	$0	-$3.45	50% 1181-1203 (2384)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$292.36

Value

$326.23

PnL

+$33.87

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$94.66

Value

$97.25

PnL

+$2.59

Record

44%

171-217 (388)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$11.25

Value

$79.35

PnL

+$68.1

Record

37%

200-345 (545)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$5.52

Value

PnL

+$0.48

Record

45%

506-615 (1121)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$2.05

Value

PnL

+$2.95

Record

32%

510-1077 (1587)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.25

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$41.22

Record

32%

276-598 (874)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.29

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$13.28

Record

57%

83-62 (145)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.45

Value

PnL

-$3.45

Record

50%

1181-1203 (2384)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.