Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

New Zealand vs. India: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$186.44

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,351

Combined PnL+$621.26

Under6 traders

Total Value$994.61

Total Shares2,874

Combined PnL-$434.82

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Overavg 44.2¢	$495.22	$1.1K	+$619.06	47% 1401-1566 (2967)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$929.06	$884.41	-$44.64	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.2¢	$514.98	$462.75	-$52.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$414.08	$421.67	+$7.58
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 49¢	$490	$495	+$5	32% 496-1046 (1542)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 57.9¢	$468.99	$238.91	-$230.08	47% 394-451 (845)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$200.53	$201.55	+$1.01	99% 208-3 (211)
RN1CTR	Underavg 55¢	$149.47	$134.62	-$14.84	57% 4319-3324 (7643)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 56.2¢	$109.98	$112.55	+$2.57	52% 661-616 (1277)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 42¢	$14.63	$15.82	+$1.19	50% 1105-1107 (2212)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$10.25	$10.69	+$0.44	44% 159-200 (359)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 35.4¢	$200.75	$2.84	-$197.91	33% 503-1013 (1516)

suntori

Over

Invested

$495.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$619.06

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$929.06

Value

$884.41

PnL

-$44.64

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

Both legs:

Over$514.9851.2¢-$52.23

Under$414.0853¢+$7.58

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$490

Value

$495

PnL

+$5

Record

32%

496-1046 (1542)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$468.99

Value

$238.91

PnL

-$230.08

Record

47%

394-451 (845)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$200.53

Value

$201.55

PnL

+$1.01

Record

99%

208-3 (211)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$149.47

Value

$134.62

PnL

-$14.84

Record

57%

4319-3324 (7643)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$109.98

Value

$112.55

PnL

+$2.57

Record

52%

661-616 (1277)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$14.63

Value

$15.82

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

1105-1107 (2212)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.69

PnL

+$0.44

Record

44%

159-200 (359)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$200.75

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$197.91

Record

33%

503-1013 (1516)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.