Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 1 India?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 93¢ · $591 held · ends Nov 12

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$590.97

Combined PnL

$4.75

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 93¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$580.17

Total Shares624

Combined PnL+$4.93

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.8

Total Shares154

Combined PnL-$0.18

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 92.3¢	$381.86	$384.89	+$3.03	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 92¢	$92	$90.51	+$1.03	52% 661-616 (1277)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 92¢	$80.04	$80.91	+$0.87	37% 193-335 (528)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 93¢	$23.86	$23.86	+$0	41% 490-712 (1202)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$5.86	$5.86	+$0	32% 489-1029 (1518)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$3.32	$3.14	-$0.18	47% 1401-1566 (2967)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.8	$1.8	+$0	32% 500-1044 (1544)

Flaznorp

Invested

$381.86

Value

$384.89

PnL

+$3.03

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$92

Value

$90.51

PnL

+$1.03

Record

52%

661-616 (1277)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$80.04

Value

$80.91

PnL

+$0.87

Record

37%

193-335 (528)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$23.86

Value

$23.86

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.86

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

489-1029 (1518)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

500-1044 (1544)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.