Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 0 India?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 88¢ · $891 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$891.44
$4
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 89¢ | $777.86 | $773.49 | -$4.37 | 32% 500-1044 (1544) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $85.02 | $92.15 | +$7.13 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $11.55 | $12.17 | +$0.62 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $10.1 | $10.52 | +$0.42 | 32% 496-1046 (1542) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.9 | $1.9 | +$0 | 47% 1401-1566 (2967) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1 | $1.2 | +$0.2 | 50% 1105-1107 (2212) |
Invested
$777.86
Value
$773.49
PnL
-$4.37
Record
32%
500-1044 (1544)
Invested
$85.02
Value
$92.15
PnL
+$7.13
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$12.17
PnL
+$0.62
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$10.52
PnL
+$0.42
Record
32%
496-1046 (1542)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1401-1566 (2967)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
1105-1107 (2212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.