Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 India?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 75¢ · $663 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$663.3
$342.83
96.1¢ → 74.6¢
-22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 96¢ | $274.96 | $474.5 | +$199.54 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.9¢ | $42.32 | $129.29 | +$86.97 | 47% 394-451 (845) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.59 | $29.55 | +$27.96 | 25% 136-410 (546) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.59 | $29.55 | +$27.96 | 59% 3517-2395 (5912) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.02 | $0.42 | +$0.4 | 37% 193-335 (528) |
Invested
$274.96
Value
$474.5
PnL
+$199.54
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$42.32
Value
$129.29
PnL
+$86.97
Record
47%
394-451 (845)
Invested
$1.59
Value
$29.55
PnL
+$27.96
Record
25%
136-410 (546)
Invested
$1.59
Value
$29.55
PnL
+$27.96
Record
59%
3517-2395 (5912)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.42
PnL
+$0.4
Record
37%
193-335 (528)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.