New Zealand vs. India: Both Teams to Score
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 55¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$144.24
$0.98
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $39.24 | $39.24 | -$0 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $32.97 | $33.59 | +$0.62 | 41% 258-379 (637) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $26.89 | $26.32 | -$0.57 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $27.13 | $22.95 | +$0.98 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $13 | $12.86 | -$0.14 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $9.2 | $9.28 | +$0.09 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
Invested
$39.24
Value
$39.24
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$32.97
Value
$33.59
PnL
+$0.62
Record
41%
258-379 (637)
Invested
$26.89
Value
$26.32
PnL
-$0.57
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$27.13
Value
$22.95
PnL
+$0.98
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$13
Value
$12.86
PnL
-$0.14
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.28
PnL
+$0.09
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.