Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Malta vs. Eswatini: O/U 2.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$13.36
41.5¢ → 43.5¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $549.97 | $556.86 | +$6.89 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 42¢ | $330.75 | $338.62 | +$7.87 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 57.3¢ | $219.23 | $218.24 | -$0.99 | |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $148.23 | $151.76 | +$3.53 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 41¢ | $125.91 | $132.06 | +$6.14 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $56.99 | $59.77 | +$2.78 | 52% 185-171 (356) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $50.66 | $51.87 | +$1.21 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $40.78 | $40.16 | -$0.62 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $13.23 | $13.55 | +$0.31 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | +$0 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
Invested
$549.97
Value
$556.86
PnL
+$6.89
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Both legs:
Invested
$148.23
Value
$151.76
PnL
+$3.53
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$125.91
Value
$132.06
PnL
+$6.14
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$56.99
Value
$59.77
PnL
+$2.78
Record
52%
185-171 (356)
Invested
$50.66
Value
$51.87
PnL
+$1.21
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$40.78
Value
$40.16
PnL
-$0.62
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Invested
$13.23
Value
$13.55
PnL
+$0.31
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.