Malta vs. Eswatini: O/U 1.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 100¢ · $948 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 56%
$948.33
-$132.84
81.8¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 80.9¢ | $953.27 | $833.04 | -$120.23 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 92.5¢ | $36.9 | $39.69 | +$2.79 | 86% 70-11 (81) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $30.22 | $21.68 | -$8.54 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 84¢ | $23.25 | $20 | -$3.25 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 95¢ | $19 | $19.9 | +$0.9 | 78% 720-203 (923) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 84¢ | $11.57 | $10.86 | -$0.72 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $4.5 | $2.97 | -$1.53 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $0.18 | $0.18 | +$0.01 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $2.28 | $0.01 | -$2.27 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
Invested
$953.27
Value
$833.04
PnL
-$120.23
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$36.9
Value
$39.69
PnL
+$2.79
Record
86%
70-11 (81)
Invested
$30.22
Value
$21.68
PnL
-$8.54
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$23.25
Value
$20
PnL
-$3.25
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
Invested
$19
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0.9
Record
78%
720-203 (923)
Invested
$11.57
Value
$10.86
PnL
-$0.72
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$1.53
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0.01
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$2.28
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.27
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.