Will Eswatini win on 2026-11-12?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 86¢ · $718 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$718.45
-$23.29
86¢ → 85.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 86¢ | $336.82 | $334.86 | -$1.96 | 30% 375-876 (1251) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 86¢ | $279.5 | $279.5 | +$0 | 31% 381-851 (1232) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $90.44 | $90.56 | +$0.12 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $9.33 | $9.33 | -$0 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
MA makerview00CTR<$100 | Yesavg 85.5¢ | $25.65 | $4.2 | -$21.45 | — |
Invested
$336.82
Value
$334.86
PnL
-$1.96
Record
30%
375-876 (1251)
Invested
$279.5
Value
$279.5
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
381-851 (1232)
Invested
$90.44
Value
$90.56
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$9.33
Value
$9.33
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$25.65
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$21.45
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.