Will Malta win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
2 arb excluded
$1.0K
$21.03
62.7¢ → 65.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Yesavg 63¢ | $409.55 | $426.1 | +$16.55 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 37.8¢ | $409.08 | $393.87 | -$15.2 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37.8¢ | $227.12 | $204.37 | -$22.75 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.4¢ | $181.95 | $189.5 | +$7.55 | |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $63.9 | $68.73 | +$4.83 | 32% 536-1124 (1660) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $58.9 | $60.37 | +$1.47 | 52% 184-170 (354) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 65¢ | $31.85 | $32.1 | +$0.24 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 33¢ | $27.05 | $28.28 | +$1.23 | |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $34.75 | $37.36 | +$2.61 | 33% 556-1107 (1663) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.2¢ | $38.14 | $35.25 | -$2.89 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $6.84 | $6.84 | +$0 | 15% 29-166 (195) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $4.76 | $4.69 | -$0.07 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
Invested
$409.55
Value
$426.1
PnL
+$16.55
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$409.08
Value
$393.87
PnL
-$15.2
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.9
Value
$68.73
PnL
+$4.83
Record
32%
536-1124 (1660)
Invested
$58.9
Value
$60.37
PnL
+$1.47
Record
52%
184-170 (354)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.75
Value
$37.36
PnL
+$2.61
Record
33%
556-1107 (1663)
Invested
$38.14
Value
$35.25
PnL
-$2.89
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$6.84
PnL
+$0
Record
15%
29-166 (195)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.69
PnL
-$0.07
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.