Malta leading at halftime?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 100¢ · $205 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$205.16
-$3.3
72.5¢ → 100¢
+38% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | $90.88 | $81.25 | -$9.63 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $38.51 | $47.77 | +$9.26 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $28.9 | $34.98 | +$6.08 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $33.13 | $27.93 | -$5.2 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $2.83 | $2.74 | -$0.09 | 47% 532-590 (1122) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $4 | $2.68 | -$1.32 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $2.65 | -$1.15 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $2.38 | $2.17 | -$0.21 | 27% 182-490 (672) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $1.87 | $1.92 | +$0.06 | 36% 209-369 (578) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $0.9 | $1.05 | +$0.15 | 44% 389-495 (884) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $1.26 | $0 | -$1.26 | 43% 348-470 (818) |
Invested
$90.88
Value
$81.25
PnL
-$9.63
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$38.51
Value
$47.77
PnL
+$9.26
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$28.9
Value
$34.98
PnL
+$6.08
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
Invested
$33.13
Value
$27.93
PnL
-$5.2
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.83
Value
$2.74
PnL
-$0.09
Record
47%
532-590 (1122)
Invested
$4
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$1.32
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$1.15
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
Invested
$2.38
Value
$2.17
PnL
-$0.21
Record
27%
182-490 (672)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.06
Record
36%
209-369 (578)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
44%
389-495 (884)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.26
Record
43%
348-470 (818)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.