Exact Score: Malta 1 - 0 Eswatini?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.4K
$1.96
84¢ → 84.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 84¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$6.13 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 84¢ | $126.96 | $127.71 | +$0.76 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $126.15 | $122.2 | -$3.94 | 32% 500-1044 (1544) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $74.1 | $74.1 | +$0 | 33% 503-1013 (1516) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $31.2 | $30.23 | -$0.97 | 32% 496-1046 (1542) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $8.78 | $8.78 | +$0 | 32% 489-1029 (1518) |
Invested
$1,029.22
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$6.13
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$126.96
Value
$127.71
PnL
+$0.76
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$126.15
Value
$122.2
PnL
-$3.94
Record
32%
500-1044 (1544)
Invested
$74.1
Value
$74.1
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
503-1013 (1516)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$30.23
PnL
-$0.97
Record
32%
496-1046 (1542)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
489-1029 (1518)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.