Will Malta vs. Eswatini end in a draw?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 74¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$2.8K
$16.31
76¢ → 74¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 76¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$36.65 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $476.06 | $512.56 | +$36.5 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $312.94 | $331.28 | +$18.35 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $110.22 | $107.71 | -$2.51 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $10.11 | $10.31 | +$0.2 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $8.32 | $8.13 | -$0.19 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
NO NotJump<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $4.15 | $4.18 | +$0.03 | 54% 455-382 (837) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.93 | +$0.68 | — 6-6 (12) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $1.1 | -$0.1 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $0.27 | $0.27 | +$0.01 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
Invested
$1,856.48
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$36.65
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$476.06
Value
$512.56
PnL
+$36.5
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$312.94
Value
$331.28
PnL
+$18.35
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$110.22
Value
$107.71
PnL
-$2.51
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
Invested
$10.11
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$0.2
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$8.13
PnL
-$0.19
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.18
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
455-382 (837)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$0.68
Record
—
6-6 (12)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.27
PnL
+$0.01
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.