Malta vs. Eswatini: Both Teams to Score
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 60¢ · $587 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$587.32
$3.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 57.8¢ | $336 | $345.85 | +$9.85 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $110.75 | $110.75 | -$0 | 31% 381-851 (1232) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $100.28 | $95.61 | -$4.67 | 30% 375-876 (1251) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $34.18 | $32.96 | -$1.22 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | -$0 | 31% 386-869 (1255) |
Invested
$336
Value
$345.85
PnL
+$9.85
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$110.75
Value
$110.75
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
381-851 (1232)
Invested
$100.28
Value
$95.61
PnL
-$4.67
Record
30%
375-876 (1251)
Invested
$34.18
Value
$32.96
PnL
-$1.22
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
386-869 (1255)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.