Lithuania vs. Suriname: O/U 2.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$319.03

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 85.5¢

+36% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,825

Combined PnL+$197.22

Over5 traders

Total Value$311.67

Total Shares2,072

Combined PnL-$516.25

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 63.8¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$137.99	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 60¢	$356.75	$415.98	+$59.23	52% 773-714 (1487)
WI Winning2...CTR	Overavg 40¢	$800	$290	-$510	— 0-12 (12)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 38.1¢	$63.51	$57.89	-$5.62	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.1¢	$37.91	$29.89	-$8.02
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$25.6	$28	+$2.4
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$10.75	$8.27	-$2.48	32% 534-1112 (1646)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$7.6	$6	-$1.6	33% 558-1111 (1669)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$7.67	$5.9	-$1.77	32% 538-1128 (1666)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.5	-$0.4	41% 552-797 (1349)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,557.75

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$137.99

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$356.75

Value

$415.98

PnL

+$59.23

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

Winning2...CTR

Over

Invested

$800

Value

$290

PnL

-$510

Record

—

0-12 (12)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$63.51

Value

$57.89

PnL

-$5.62

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Over$37.9138.1¢-$8.02

Under$25.664¢+$2.4

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.75

Value

$8.27

PnL

-$2.48

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

-$1.6

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.67

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$1.77

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.4

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.