Lithuania vs. Suriname: O/U 0.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 81¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over20¢Under80¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

21.5¢ → 80.5¢

+275% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,733

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Over1 trader

Total Value$171.85

Total Shares292

Combined PnL-$92.67

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 21.7¢	$2.2K	$4.6K	+$2.4K	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 14¢	$115.49	$173.23	+$57.74	33% 553-1135 (1688)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 82.2¢	$264.51	$171.85	-$92.67	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
RN1<$100	Underavg 58.1¢	$61.39	$62.39	+$1	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 14¢	$21.56	$32.34	+$10.78	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 57¢	$28.63	$30.14	+$1.51	47% 532-590 (1122)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 23.9¢	$11.49	$17.08	+$5.59	32% 538-1128 (1666)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 58¢	$11.6	$12	+$0.4	83% 384-80 (464)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 13.4¢	$6.23	$8.35	+$2.12	32% 534-1112 (1646)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 12.5¢	$0.36	$0.6	+$0.24	36% 209-369 (578)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,215.57

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$115.49

Value

$173.23

PnL

+$57.74

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$264.51

Value

$171.85

PnL

-$92.67

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$61.39

Value

$62.39

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$21.56

Value

$32.34

PnL

+$10.78

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$28.63

Value

$30.14

PnL

+$1.51

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$11.49

Value

$17.08

PnL

+$5.59

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$11.6

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.4

Record

83%

384-80 (464)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$6.23

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$2.12

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.24

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.