Will Suriname win on 2026-11-12?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 74¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$66.29

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 73.5¢

+18% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,808

Combined PnL-$490.65

No9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,104

Combined PnL+$556.93

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Yesavg 40.7¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$428.56	58% 47-34 (81)
LI Limousin	Noavg 60.2¢	$699.44	$853.28	+$153.83	32% 534-1112 (1646)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 59¢	$647.06	$742.28	+$126.94	52% 773-714 (1487)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 61.7¢	$530.36	$631.36	+$100.99	33% 558-1111 (1669)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 62.4¢	$485.91	$572.16	+$86.25	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 67.1¢	$474.86	$520.53	+$45.67	33% 553-1135 (1688)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 67¢	$435.57	$466.29	+$30.72	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
└ No leg	Noavg 67¢	$335.67	$368.24	+$32.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$99.9	$98.05	-$1.85
VE Venusian	Noavg 66.3¢	$303.83	$336.77	+$32.93	32% 538-1128 (1666)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 33.2¢	$237.29	$196.29	-$41	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$123.8	$108.8	-$15.01	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 62.4¢	$52.29	$61.58	+$9.29	22% 178-637 (815)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$16.19	$10.22	-$5.97	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$6.13	$6.02	-$0.11	36% 209-369 (578)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3	$3.68	+$0.67	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.55	+$0.35	41% 552-797 (1349)

Zzzz87CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,489.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$428.56

Record

58%

47-34 (81)

Limousin

Invested

$699.44

Value

$853.28

PnL

+$153.83

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$647.06

Value

$742.28

PnL

+$126.94

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

MadridTime

Invested

$530.36

Value

$631.36

PnL

+$100.99

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

Flaznorp

Invested

$485.91

Value

$572.16

PnL

+$86.25

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

LightParadox

Invested

$474.86

Value

$520.53

PnL

+$45.67

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$435.57

Value

$466.29

PnL

+$30.72

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

Both legs:

No$335.6767¢+$32.57

Yes$99.927¢-$1.85

Venusian

Invested

$303.83

Value

$336.77

PnL

+$32.93

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$237.29

Value

$196.29

PnL

-$41

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.8

Value

$108.8

PnL

-$15.01

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$52.29

Value

$61.58

PnL

+$9.29

Record

22%

178-637 (815)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.19

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$5.97

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.13

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$0.11

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.67

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.