Will Lithuania win on 2026-11-12?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$13.07

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 69.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,134

Combined PnL+$14.16

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.12

Total Shares45

Combined PnL-$1.09

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 70¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$9.18	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
LI Limousin	Noavg 68¢	$118.99	$121.61	+$2.62	33% 534-1108 (1642)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$57.66	$59.72	+$2.05	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$36.01	$36.23	+$0.22	33% 553-1132 (1685)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$11	$10.85	-$0.15	41% 544-784 (1328)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$5.71	$5.62	-$0.09	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.86	$1.93	+$0.07	52% 761-712 (1473)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.5	$1.65	-$0.85	— 6-3 (9)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,285.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$9.18

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Limousin

Invested

$118.99

Value

$121.61

PnL

+$2.62

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$57.66

Value

$59.72

PnL

+$2.05

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$36.01

Value

$36.23

PnL

+$0.22

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$10.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.85

Record

—

6-3 (9)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.