Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Lithuania vs. Suriname end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 42¢ · $64 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$63.72
$7.57
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $26.61 | $29.97 | +$3.36 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $9 | $11.1 | +$2.1 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $6.8 | $8.3 | +$1.5 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $4.55 | $5.43 | +$0.88 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $5 | $4.9 | -$0.1 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.05 | -$0.2 | — 6-6 (12) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $0.59 | $0.59 | +$0 | 51% 2075-1993 (4068) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $0.35 | $0.38 | +$0.03 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
Invested
$26.61
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$3.36
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$9
Value
$11.1
PnL
+$2.1
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$1.5
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$5.43
PnL
+$0.88
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$0.2
Record
—
6-6 (12)
Invested
$0.59
Value
$0.59
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2075-1993 (4068)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.38
PnL
+$0.03
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.