Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (76%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Kuwait vs. Syria: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 24¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 13

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$706.17

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 24¢

-60% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,861

Combined PnL-$812.97

Over5 traders

Total Value$358.46

Total Shares619

Combined PnL+$106.8

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 61.5¢	$5.2K	$3.1K	$-2.1K	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Over leg	Overavg 73.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$60.04
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.5¢	$3.5K	$1.4K	$-2.1K
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 51¢	$650.45	$844.24	+$200.38	53% 1030-921 (1951)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 63.9¢	$1.7K	$660.93	$-1.0K	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SU suntori	Overavg 32.5¢	$102.9	$242	+$139.1	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
VE Venusian	Overavg 48¢	$132.33	$99.25	-$33.08	34% 735-1404 (2139)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$74.31	$88.6	+$14.29	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$34.72	$43.12	+$8.4	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$18.09	$21.57	+$3.48	33% 251-499 (750)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 47.8¢	$10.88	$10.47	-$0.41	43% 808-1065 (1873)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Overavg 21¢	$1.3	$4.7	+$3.4	22% 41-145 (186)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.25	$2.04	-$2.21	36% 761-1361 (2122)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,157.39

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Over$1,686.973.4¢+$60.04

Under$3,470.4961.5¢$-2.1K

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$650.45

Value

$844.24

PnL

+$200.38

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,700.45

Value

$660.93

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

suntori

Over

Invested

$102.9

Value

$242

PnL

+$139.1

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$132.33

Value

$99.25

PnL

-$33.08

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$74.31

Value

$88.6

PnL

+$14.29

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.72

Value

$43.12

PnL

+$8.4

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

GC-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.09

Value

$21.57

PnL

+$3.48

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$10.88

Value

$10.47

PnL

-$0.41

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Over

Invested

$1.3

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$3.4

Record

22%

41-145 (186)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$4.25

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$2.21

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.