Will Syria win on 2026-11-13?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$326.96

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 99.5¢

+13% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,299

Combined PnL+$502.76

Yes2 traders

Total Value$15.38

Total Shares554

Combined PnL-$175.8

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 91.9¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$168.29	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.9¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$61.99	48% 677-745 (1422)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 63.7¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$541.55	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 95.1¢	$887.98	$880.32	+$3.73	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 90.2¢	$387.2	$411.1	+$23.9	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 95.5¢	$268.83	$268.83	+$0	36% 326-587 (913)
TH thirdt1me	Noavg 95.6¢	$239.07	$238.86	-$0.21	47% 214-243 (457)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 96.9¢	$133.6	$137.23	+$3.63	36% 763-1361 (2124)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$95.2	$95.5	+$0.3	53% 634-568 (1202)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$96.6	$95.5	-$1.1	34% 736-1405 (2141)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 56¢	$54.49	$92.92	+$38.43	35% 736-1380 (2116)
leflaiveCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$178.9	$14.64	-$164.27	48% 11-12 (23)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 98¢	$7.16	$5.1	-$2.06	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 56¢	$1.27	$2.17	+$0.9	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$11.12	$0.74	-$11.53	46% 2104-2463 (4567)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,348.76

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$168.29

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,030.51

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$61.99

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,056.53

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$541.55

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

cigarettes

Invested

$887.98

Value

$880.32

PnL

+$3.73

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$387.2

Value

$411.1

PnL

+$23.9

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$268.83

Value

$268.83

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

thirdt1me

Invested

$239.07

Value

$238.86

PnL

-$0.21

Record

47%

214-243 (457)

MadridTime

Invested

$133.6

Value

$137.23

PnL

+$3.63

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$95.2

Value

$95.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$96.6

Value

$95.5

PnL

-$1.1

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$54.49

Value

$92.92

PnL

+$38.43

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

leflaiveCTR

Yes

Invested

$178.9

Value

$14.64

PnL

-$164.27

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$7.16

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$2.06

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.12

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$11.53

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.