Will Kuwait win on 2026-11-13?

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (21%) · Yes at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 21%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$257.79

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 94.5¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,074

Combined PnL-$5.99

No11 traders

Total Value$534.29

Total Shares5,149

Combined PnL-$251.8

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 84.9¢	$935	$911.1	-$22.09	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 17.9¢	$477.15	$306.68	-$170.47	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SU suntori	Yesavg 89.2¢	$155.21	$162.61	+$7.4	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Noavg 12.8¢	$86.06	$57.24	-$28.82	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$45.41	$52.23	+$6.81	47% 214-243 (457)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$59.74	$37.36	-$22.38	53% 634-568 (1202)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 10.3¢	$45.58	$35.39	-$10.19	48% 677-745 (1422)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$17.1	$25.8	+$8.7	78% 748-213 (961)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 9.5¢	$29.56	$17.2	-$12.36	35% 750-1386 (2136)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$16.94	$16.47	-$0.47	26% 250-705 (955)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$5.16	$4.81	-$0.34	48% 425-457 (882)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$3.66	$3.21	-$0.46	36% 326-587 (913)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$12.86	$2.5	-$10.36	53% 1030-921 (1951)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$3.97	$1.21	-$2.76	47% 786-902 (1688)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$935

Value

$911.1

PnL

-$22.09

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$477.15

Value

$306.68

PnL

-$170.47

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$155.21

Value

$162.61

PnL

+$7.4

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Invested

$86.06

Value

$57.24

PnL

-$28.82

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Invested

$45.41

Value

$52.23

PnL

+$6.81

Record

47%

214-243 (457)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$59.74

Value

$37.36

PnL

-$22.38

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$45.58

Value

$35.39

PnL

-$10.19

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.1

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$8.7

Record

78%

748-213 (961)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$29.56

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$12.36

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$16.94

Value

$16.47

PnL

-$0.47

Record

26%

250-705 (955)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.34

Record

48%

425-457 (882)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$0.46

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$12.86

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$10.36

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$3.97

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$2.76

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.