Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-11-13?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$4.51

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 46.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,237

Combined PnL-$3.36

Yes4 traders

Total Value$34.45

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$1.15

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 46¢	$485.02	$481.24	-$3.78	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 45.5¢	$444.97	$444.86	-$0.11	52% 761-712 (1473)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$62.14	$62.62	+$0.47	52% 185-171 (356)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$54.14	$53.65	-$0.48	41% 544-784 (1328)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$23.04	$23.69	+$0.65	33% 558-1109 (1667)
leflaiveCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$13.34	$13.49	+$0.15	— 7-7 (14)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$4.76	$4.72	-$0.04	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 82.2¢	$5.24	$3.38	-$1.86	65% 136-72 (208)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$2.56	$2.66	+$0.1	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$0.23	$0.63	+$0.4	— 6-3 (9)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$485.02

Value

$481.24

PnL

-$3.78

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$444.97

Value

$444.86

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$62.14

Value

$62.62

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

185-171 (356)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$54.14

Value

$53.65

PnL

-$0.48

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.04

Value

$23.69

PnL

+$0.65

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

leflaiveCTR<$100

Invested

$13.34

Value

$13.49

PnL

+$0.15

Record

—

7-7 (14)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.24

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$1.86

Record

65%

136-72 (208)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.4

Record

—

6-3 (9)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.