Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Saudi Arabia vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score
Resolved Yes. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
No 44%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$263.55
Smart Money Signal
4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 49.6¢ | $2.8K | $2.3K | -$561.06 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45.6¢ | $1.0K | $2.3K | +$1.2K | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.6¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | |
 FaroeseNationalistCTR | Noavg 54¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 59% 13-9 (22) |
FE ferdinand2 | Yesavg 46¢ | $70.28 | $135.03 | +$73.92 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 53¢ | $179.95 | — | -$139.92 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $77.15 | — | -$77.15 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Yesavg 89.9¢ | $49.45 | $55 | +$5.55 | 85% 127-22 (149) |
SU suntori | Yesavg 46.9¢ | $163.56 | $46.01 | +$184.59 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $17.8 | $20 | +$2.2 | 60% 55-37 (92) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $7.85 | $16.7 | +$8.85 | 35% 750-1386 (2136) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $5.19 | — | -$5.19 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
WI Winning2... | Yesavg 41¢ | $614.99 | $0 | +$883.49 | 9% 2-20 (22) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Yesavg 50¢ | $200 | — | +$0 | 75% 112-37 (149) |
Invested
$2,823.9
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$561.06
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Both legs:
FaroeseNationalistCTRInvested
$1,199.88
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
59%
13-9 (22)
Invested
$70.28
Value
$135.03
PnL
+$73.92
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$179.95
Value
—
PnL
-$139.92
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$77.15
Value
—
PnL
-$77.15
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
Invested
$49.45
Value
$55
PnL
+$5.55
Record
85%
127-22 (149)
Invested
$163.56
Value
$46.01
PnL
+$184.59
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.2
Record
60%
55-37 (92)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$16.7
PnL
+$8.85
Record
35%
750-1386 (2136)
Invested
$5.19
Value
—
PnL
-$5.19
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$614.99
Value
$0
PnL
+$883.49
Record
9%
2-20 (22)
Invested
$200
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
75%
112-37 (149)