Japan vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 81¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 14

Over20¢Under80¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 80.5¢

+77% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares18,735

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,313

Combined PnL-$704.45

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 43.2¢	$6.7K	$9.7K	+$3.0K	49% 3800-3964 (7764)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 50.4¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$38.49	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
RN1	Underavg 47.5¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$702.29	55% 5362-4301 (9663)
SH Shimi1234CTR	Overavg 54.2¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$709.22	31% 8-18 (26)
SE sentrio	Underavg 46¢	$420.28	$439.77	+$19.49	42% 988-1357 (2345)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 79.3¢	$228	$169.68	-$58.31	53% 1335-1164 (2499)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 41.8¢	$44.72	$19.2	+$21.78	48% 2063-2220 (4283)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$7.05	$17	+$9.95	36% 926-1642 (2568)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$12.4	$13.24	+$0.84	48% 1089-1166 (2255)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 71¢	$12.43	$7.18	-$5.25	61% 1421-900 (2321)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 82¢	$5.6	$3.96	-$1.64	56% 460-366 (826)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$2.34	$2.41	+$0.06	52% 808-738 (1546)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$6,681.29

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

49%

3800-3964 (7764)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,749.62

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$38.49

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,238.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$702.29

Record

55%

5362-4301 (9663)

Shimi1234CTR

Over

Invested

$2,300

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$709.22

Record

31%

8-18 (26)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$420.28

Value

$439.77

PnL

+$19.49

Record

42%

988-1357 (2345)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$228

Value

$169.68

PnL

-$58.31

Record

53%

1335-1164 (2499)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$44.72

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$21.78

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.05

Value

$17

PnL

+$9.95

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$12.4

Value

$13.24

PnL

+$0.84

Record

48%

1089-1166 (2255)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.43

Value

$7.18

PnL

-$5.25

Record

61%

1421-900 (2321)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$5.6

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$1.64

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.41

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

808-738 (1546)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.