Japan vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Over41¢Under59¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$21.37

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 59.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,058

Combined PnL-$16.35

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,722

Combined PnL+$37.72

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 60¢	$990.3	$981.26	-$9.05	53% 1298-1131 (2429)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 60¢	$814.17	$807.39	-$6.78	51% 2485-2431 (4916)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 40¢	$541.72	$548.54	+$6.82	53% 2050-1788 (3838)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Overavg 39¢	$350.95	$355.5	+$4.55	61% 86-54 (140)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 36.7¢	$278.6	$307.32	+$28.72	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 41¢	$285.71	$282.23	-$3.48	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 61¢	$31.72	$31.2	-$0.52	56% 444-355 (799)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 35.7¢	$2.48	$2.81	+$0.33	42% 970-1328 (2298)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.7	$2.48	+$0.78	48% 2022-2162 (4184)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$990.3

Value

$981.26

PnL

-$9.05

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$814.17

Value

$807.39

PnL

-$6.78

Record

51%

2485-2431 (4916)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$541.72

Value

$548.54

PnL

+$6.82

Record

53%

2050-1788 (3838)

Zzzz87CTR

Over

Invested

$350.95

Value

$355.5

PnL

+$4.55

Record

61%

86-54 (140)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$278.6

Value

$307.32

PnL

+$28.72

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$285.71

Value

$282.23

PnL

-$3.48

Record

46%

2495-2986 (5481)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.72

Value

$31.2

PnL

-$0.52

Record

56%

444-355 (799)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0.33

Record

42%

970-1328 (2298)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.7

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

2022-2162 (4184)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.