Japan vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 63¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 14

Over63¢Under37¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

-$113.51

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 62.5¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares8,575

Combined PnL-$126.27

Under7 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares14,585

Combined PnL+$12.76

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 65¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$126.74	62% 87-54 (141)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 37¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$34.15	50% 2500-2457 (4957)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 62.8¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$29.91	53% 2055-1798 (3853)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$16.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.7¢	$609.25	$622.27	+$13.01
RN1CTR	Underavg 35¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$75	56% 5349-4286 (9635)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 63¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$11.63	37% 351-601 (952)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63¢	$658.92	$664.15	+$5.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.9¢	$375.36	$381.76	+$6.4
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 63¢	$666.5	$675	+$8.5	59% 3761-2586 (6347)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63¢	$425.25	$428.63	+$3.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 35.7¢	$241.25	$246.38	+$5.13
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 35¢	$397.25	$414.27	+$17.02	40% 114-172 (286)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 39¢	$426.51	$398.94	-$27.57	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 39.6¢	$124.24	$114.61	-$9.63	55% 447-361 (808)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 40.2¢	$77.52	$69.5	-$8.02	42% 979-1345 (2324)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 63¢	$58.93	$59.4	+$0.47	61% 1039-654 (1693)
FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$7.49	$7.59	+$0.1	52% 17-16 (33)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$5,512.17

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$126.74

Record

62%

87-54 (141)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$2,527.1

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$34.15

Record

50%

2500-2457 (4957)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,130.95

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$29.91

Record

53%

2055-1798 (3853)

Both legs:

Over$1,521.6962.8¢+$16.9

Under$609.2535.7¢+$13.01

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,750

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$75

Record

56%

5349-4286 (9635)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,034.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.63

Record

37%

351-601 (952)

Both legs:

Over$658.9263¢+$5.23

Under$375.3635.9¢+$6.4

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$666.5

Value

$675

PnL

+$8.5

Record

59%

3761-2586 (6347)

Both legs:

Over$425.2563¢+$3.38

Under$241.2535.7¢+$5.13

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$397.25

Value

$414.27

PnL

+$17.02

Record

40%

114-172 (286)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$426.51

Value

$398.94

PnL

-$27.57

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$124.24

Value

$114.61

PnL

-$9.63

Record

55%

447-361 (808)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$77.52

Value

$69.5

PnL

-$8.02

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$58.93

Value

$59.4

PnL

+$0.47

Record

61%

1039-654 (1693)

FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.49

Value

$7.59

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

17-16 (33)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.