Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Japan vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,272

Combined PnL+$927.73

Under6 traders

Total Value$501.08

Total Shares5,792

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO ForMyFamily1	Overavg 52.2¢	$1.0K	$1.9K	+$924.54	— 11-7 (18)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$1.5K	$473.57	-$994.92	49% 3800-3964 (7764)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$324.29	$327.41	+$3.11	98% 454-7 (461)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 81.7¢	$30.76	$19.57	-$11.19	56% 460-366 (826)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 99¢	$7.84	$7.92	+$0.08	40% 425-644 (1069)
RN1CTR	Underavg 55.6¢	$1.3K	$7.6	$-1.3K	55% 5362-4301 (9663)
SM SmallcoinsCTR	Underavg 30¢	$171.43	$0.29	-$171.14	4% 9-228 (237)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 27.2¢	$15.79	$0.03	-$15.76	48% 1089-1166 (2255)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 43.8¢	$23.23	$0.02	-$18.21	48% 2063-2220 (4283)

ForMyFamily1

Over

Invested

$1,011.4

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$924.54

Record

—

11-7 (18)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,468.49

Value

$473.57

PnL

-$994.92

Record

49%

3800-3964 (7764)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$324.29

Value

$327.41

PnL

+$3.11

Record

98%

454-7 (461)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.76

Value

$19.57

PnL

-$11.19

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$7.84

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$0.08

Record

40%

425-644 (1069)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,259.92

Value

$7.6

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

55%

5362-4301 (9663)

SmallcoinsCTR

Under

Invested

$171.43

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$171.14

Record

9-228 (237)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.79

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$15.76

Record

48%

1089-1166 (2255)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.23

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$18.21

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.