Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Japan vs. Brazil end in a draw?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 17¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$28.64

Smart Money Entry

24.1¢ → 16.5¢

-32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$837.45

Total Shares3,470

Combined PnL-$38.1

No3 traders

Total Value$232

Total Shares283

Combined PnL+$9.46

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 74¢	$1.3K	$610.01	+$25	53% 1318-1151 (2469)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$370.01	$380.01	+$30
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.5¢	$235	$230	-$5
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$394.98	$363.38	-$31.6	42% 2632-3658 (6290)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$219.47	$216.3	-$3.17	59% 3761-2586 (6347)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 79.5¢	$175.92	$182.52	+$6.6	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$176.25	$172.82	-$3.43	37% 351-601 (952)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$68.05	$68.05	+$0	40% 114-172 (286)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 74¢	$31.82	$32.68	+$0.86	55% 447-361 (808)
RN1<$100	Noavg 74¢	$14.8	$16.8	+$2	56% 5349-4286 (9635)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$10.32	$10.54	+$0.21	53% 2055-1798 (3853)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$6.5	$6.38	-$0.13	50% 2500-2457 (4957)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$1,345

Value

$610.01

PnL

+$25

Record

53%

1318-1151 (2469)

Both legs:

Invested

$394.98

Value

$363.38

PnL

-$31.6

Record

42%

2632-3658 (6290)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$219.47

Value

$216.3

PnL

-$3.17

Record

59%

3761-2586 (6347)

Flaznorp

Invested

$175.92

Value

$182.52

PnL

+$6.6

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$176.25

Value

$172.82

PnL

-$3.43

Record

37%

351-601 (952)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.05

Value

$68.05

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

114-172 (286)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.82

Value

$32.68

PnL

+$0.86

Record

55%

447-361 (808)

RN1<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

5349-4286 (9635)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.32

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

2055-1798 (3853)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

2500-2457 (4957)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.