Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Brazil win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.4K
$32.55
47.8¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47.8¢ | $538.08 | $551.37 | +$13.29 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $322.89 | $319.6 | -$3.29 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46.7¢ | $380.33 | $228.34 | +$15.6 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 47.9¢ | $135.38 | $136.97 | +$1.59 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
 leflaiveCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $94 | $98 | +$4 | 48% 11-12 (23) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $34.89 | $34.89 | +$0 | 61% 1003-631 (1634) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $31.96 | $33.32 | +$1.36 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $2.97 | $2.97 | +$0 | 46% 2084-2445 (4529) |
Invested
$538.08
Value
$551.37
PnL
+$13.29
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$322.89
Value
$319.6
PnL
-$3.29
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$380.33
Value
$228.34
PnL
+$15.6
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$135.38
Value
$136.97
PnL
+$1.59
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
leflaiveCTR<$100Invested
$94
Value
$98
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
11-12 (23)
Invested
$34.89
Value
$34.89
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
1003-631 (1634)
Invested
$31.96
Value
$33.32
PnL
+$1.36
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
Invested
$2.97
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2084-2445 (4529)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.