Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Costa Rica — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Costa Rica
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)
Resolved Costa Rica. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Costa Rica. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Costa Rica 50%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
$950.12
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Costa Ricaavg 71¢ | $2.5K | $3.5K | +$1.0K | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Costa Ricaavg 72.6¢ | $1.1K | $909.2 | -$231.52 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
| └ Costa Rica leg | Costa Ricaavg 72.6¢ | $660.11 | $909.2 | +$249.1 | |
| └ Ecuador leg | Ecuadoravg 24.9¢ | $480.62 | — | -$480.62 | |
 poshposh<$100 | Costa Ricaavg 68.7¢ | $27.6 | $30.41 | +$2.82 | 48% 1014-1101 (2115) |
SU suntori<$100 | Costa Ricaavg 80¢ | $23.8 | $29.75 | +$5.95 | 46% 2359-2814 (5173) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Ecuadoravg 24.2¢ | $22.17 | — | -$22.17 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Ecuadoravg 34¢ | $23.8 | — | -$23.8 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Ecuadoravg 27¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
 VeryLucky888 | Costa Ricaavg 71.8¢ | $334.59 | $0.01 | -$13.11 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
Invested
$2,479.77
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$1,140.73
Value
$909.2
PnL
-$231.52
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Both legs:
poshposh<$100Invested
$27.6
Value
$30.41
PnL
+$2.82
Record
48%
1014-1101 (2115)
Invested
$23.8
Value
$29.75
PnL
+$5.95
Record
46%
2359-2814 (5173)
Invested
$22.17
Value
—
PnL
-$22.17
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
Invested
$23.8
Value
—
PnL
-$23.8
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
VeryLucky888Invested
$334.59
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$13.11
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)